For nearly four decades, one of America’s most reliable Democratic strongholds has resisted every Republican attempt to reclaim its highest office, making the state’s political landscape seem almost impossible to change.
Now, a new poll suggests that historic streak may finally be in jeopardy, raising the possibility of one of the biggest political upsets of the 2026 election cycle and putting both parties on high alert months before voters head to the polls.
A new campaign-commissioned poll shows Republican Christine Drazan leading incumbent Democratic Gov. Tina Kotek in Oregon’s gubernatorial race, raising the possibility that the state could elect its first Republican governor in 39 years.
According to the survey, 48% of likely voters said they would definitely or probably support Drazan if the election were held today, while 44% backed Kotek.
The poll was conducted by Public Opinion Strategies, a Republican-aligned polling firm, which surveyed 600 registered Oregon voters by telephone between June 22 and June 24.
The results were first shared by Drazan’s campaign with lobbyists and potential donors before being obtained by The Oregonian/OregonLive.
